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MERXIBrand system
Assets

Curve system · 2026–27

Curve library

MERXI curves explain price, probability, volume, exposure, and operational quality without decorative noise. Every turn in a line must map to a timestamped observation.

Time
24-hour · UTC/IANA
Data
Observed before estimated
Shape
No smoothing of discrete odds
Market-implied68.0%
+20.8 pp
Example market-implied probability curveA seven-day example probability curve rises to 68.0 percent after a marked event.0%25%50%75%100%Team news · 30 Aug27 Aug29 Aug31 Aug02 Sep
Preview · Full data contract belowSimulated · Updated 02 Sep 2026 · 18:00 UTC

00 · Taxonomy

One curve grammar, three reading modes.

Choose the pattern from the decision and data cadence—not from the available chart library.
AudiencePrimary decisionPatternsCadence
UserWhat changed, and when?Probability range · Odds step · OHLCV · Event intervalsLive → 1 day
AdminWhere is value or risk moving?Scenario P&L · Sportsbook revenue · Settlement quality1 minute → 30 days
Marketing & socialWhat is the one defensible story?Evidence line · Top moversOne published window

01 · User product

Probability, price, and the event behind the move.

Product curves prioritize current value and traceability. Axes remain visible on every viewport; hover data adds detail but is never the only way to read the chart.

U01 · Prediction markets

Midpoint + bid–ask spread

Midpoint-implied probability stays distinct from the best bid–ask spread. The 0–100% domain is fixed across comparable markets.

% · Daily · UTC
Seven-day implied probability with best bid–ask spreadExample probability rises from 47.2 to 68.0 percent on a fixed zero to one hundred percent scale. A Cobalt band shows the best bid–ask spread, and a team-news event is marked on 30 August at 14:00 UTC.Implied probability · %0255075100Team news30 Aug · 14:00 UTC68.0%27 Aug28 Aug29 Aug30 Aug31 Aug01 Sep02 SepDaily close · UTCBest bid–ask spreadObserved
Market / dataset
PM-0902 · North London wins · 02 Sep 2026
Metric
Midpoint-implied probability · best bid / ask
Interval
1 day
Time zone
UTC
Source
MERXI simulated order book
Updated
02 Sep 2026 · 18:00
Data / feed / market
ObservedStatic exampleOpen
View exact example values
Midpoint + bid–ask spread exact example values
Time / itemValueContext
27 Aug47.2% · 45.8 / 48.6Close · bid / ask
28 Aug49.4% · 48.0 / 50.8Close · bid / ask
29 Aug51.1% · 49.7 / 52.5Close · bid / ask
30 Aug56.0% · 54.6 / 57.4Team news · 14:00 UTC
31 Aug61.6% · 60.2 / 63.0Close · bid / ask
01 Sep65.1% · 63.7 / 66.5Close · bid / ask
02 Sep68.0% · 66.6 / 69.4Close · bid / ask
Example dataNot live market information

U02 · Sportsbook

Decimal odds movement

Book prices move in steps. Preserve the step geometry; a smoothed curve implies prices that never existed.

Decimal · 1h · UTC
Sportsbook decimal odds stepped curveHome selection odds move in discrete steps from 2.12 to 1.86. A lineup confirmation at 14:20 UTC is marked in orange.Home selection · Decimal odds1.701.801.902.002.102.20Lineup confirmed02 Sep · 14:20 UTC2.12→1.86−0.2612:0013:0014:0015:0016:0017:0018:0002 Sep 2026 · UTC
Market / dataset
SB-2048 · North London v Manchester Blue
Metric
Home win decimal odds
Interval
Event driven · 1h labels
Time zone
UTC
Source
MERXI simulated sportsbook feed
Updated
02 Sep 2026 · 18:00
Data / feed / market
ObservedStatic exampleOpen
View exact example values
Decimal odds movement exact example values
Time / itemValueContext
12:002.12Opening example
13:002.09Price update
14:002.02Price update
14:201.97Lineup confirmed
15:001.91Price update
16:001.88Price update
17:001.86Price update
18:001.86Current example
Example dataNot live market information

U03 · Prediction markets

OHLC + traded volume

Use candlesticks only when open, high, low, and close are true observations. Volume shares the exact time alignment below.

¢ / K USDT · 1h
Prediction contract hourly candlestick and traded volumeEight hourly candles show open, high, low, and close price in cents per share. Aligned bars below show matched volume in thousands of USDT.Yes contract · ¢ / share50¢55¢60¢65¢60¢ watch levelTraded volume · K USDT0306009:0011:0013:0015:0016:0002 Sep · UTCUPDOWN
Market / dataset
PM-0920 · ETH above $4K · 30 Sep 2026 · YES
Metric
OHLC price · matched volume
Interval
1 hour
Time zone
UTC
Source
MERXI simulated trades
Updated
02 Sep 2026 · 16:00
Data / feed / market
ObservedStatic exampleOpen
View exact example values
OHLC + traded volume exact example values
Time / itemValueContext
09:00O 51¢ · H 55¢ · L 49¢ · C 54¢19,000 USDT matched volume
10:00O 54¢ · H 58¢ · L 52¢ · C 57¢27,000 USDT matched volume
11:00O 57¢ · H 60¢ · L 54¢ · C 55¢22,000 USDT matched volume
12:00O 55¢ · H 59¢ · L 53¢ · C 58¢31,000 USDT matched volume
13:00O 58¢ · H 64¢ · L 57¢ · C 62¢44,000 USDT matched volume
14:00O 62¢ · H 63¢ · L 59¢ · C 60¢36,000 USDT matched volume
15:00O 60¢ · H 66¢ · L 59¢ · C 65¢58,000 USDT matched volume
16:00O 65¢ · H 67¢ · L 61¢ · C 63¢42,000 USDT matched volume
Example dataNot live market information

U04 · Live market

Intervals and events

Separate pre-match, in-play, and suspension periods. A market gap is a state, not a zero value or interpolated line.

Decimal · UTC
Odds curve with pre-match, in-play, and suspended intervalsDecimal odds run through pre-match and in-play windows. Trading is suspended for a VAR review from 20:47 to 20:50 UTC, shown as a gap and labeled interval.Decimal odds1.701.801.902.002.10Pre-matchIn-playSuspended · 3 minKick-off20:00 UTCVAR review20:47–20:5018:0019:0020:0020:3021:0021:3022:0002 Sep 2026 · UTC
Market / dataset
SB-2051 · Match winner · Home
Metric
Decimal odds · market state
Interval
Event driven
Time zone
UTC
Source
MERXI simulated sportsbook feed
Updated
02 Sep 2026 · 22:00
Data / feed / market
ObservedStatic exampleClosed
View exact example values
Intervals and events exact example values
Time / itemValueContext
18:002.05Pre-match
19:002.02Pre-match
20:001.98Kick-off · in-play
20:301.93In-play
20:471.89Suspension starts
20:501.86Trading resumes
21:001.84In-play
21:301.80In-play
22:001.86Market closed
Example dataNot live market information

02 · Admin control

Economics, exposure, and service quality.

Admin curves support diagnosis: thresholds, zero baselines, denominators, and operational events remain explicit. Orange means attention—not generic decoration.

A01 · Trading risk

Scenario P&L trend

Operator perspective: positive is projected gain and negative is projected loss if the selected outcome wins. Keep zero visible. This is not a non-negative liability metric.

K USDT · 2h
Scenario profit and loss trend around a zero baselineExample sportsbook scenario profit and loss moves between negative 24 and positive 20 thousand USDT across twelve hours from the operator perspective. Positive values are projected operator gain if the selection wins; negative values are projected operator loss.Scenario P&L if selection wins · K USDT+40+200-20-40−24K · Largest liability08:0010:0012:0014:0016:0018:0020:0002 Sep 2026 · UTC
Market / dataset
RISK-0902 · BOS −4.5 selection
Metric
Scenario P&L if selection wins
Interval
2 hours
Time zone
UTC
Source
MERXI simulated risk ledger
Updated
02 Sep 2026 · 20:00
Data / feed / market
EstimatedStatic exampleOpen
View exact example values
Scenario P&L trend exact example values
Time / itemValueContext
08:000 USDTNeutral baseline
10:00+10,000 USDTProjected operator gain
12:00+6,000 USDTProjected operator gain
14:00+20,000 USDTProjected operator gain
16:00+14,000 USDTProjected operator gain
18:000 USDTNeutral baseline
20:00−24,000 USDTProjected operator loss
Example dataNot live market information

A02 · Commercial

Handle, GGR, and NGR

Aligned scales stay independent. GGR = accepted stakes minus payouts; example NGR = GGR minus bonuses and platform fees.

USDT · Daily
Seven-day Handle, GGR, and NGR small-multiple trendsThree aligned panels show daily accepted handle, gross gaming revenue, and net gaming revenue in USDT. Each metric has its own visible scale to avoid a misleading shared axis.HANDLE1.24MUSDT · DAILY1.4M0.8MGGR92.4KUSDT · DAILY100K50KNGR71.8KUSDT · DAILY80K35K27 Aug282930310102 SepDaily close · UTC
Market / dataset
SB-0827/0902 · Settled sportsbook bets
Metric
Accepted handle · GGR · NGR
Interval
1 day
Time zone
UTC
Source
MERXI simulated finance mart
Updated
02 Sep 2026 · 23:55
Data / feed / market
ObservedStatic exampleClosed
View exact example values
Handle, GGR, and NGR exact example values
Time / itemValueContext
27 Aug920,000 USDT handle · 61,200 USDT GGR · 45,800 USDT NGRHandle · GGR · NGR
28 Aug1,040,000 USDT handle · 68,100 USDT GGR · 51,400 USDT NGRHandle · GGR · NGR
29 Aug990,000 USDT handle · 63,800 USDT GGR · 47,900 USDT NGRHandle · GGR · NGR
30 Aug1,160,000 USDT handle · 82,500 USDT GGR · 64,100 USDT NGRHandle · GGR · NGR
31 Aug1,080,000 USDT handle · 76,900 USDT GGR · 57,800 USDT NGRHandle · GGR · NGR
01 Sep1,310,000 USDT handle · 96,700 USDT GGR · 74,600 USDT NGRHandle · GGR · NGR
02 Sep1,240,000 USDT handle · 92,400 USDT GGR · 71,800 USDT NGRHandle · GGR · NGR
Example dataNot live market information

A03 · Settlement operations

Exceptions and p95 latency

Pair the incident rate with service latency on aligned time axes. Thresholds are operational contracts, not aesthetic targets.

Per 10K / seconds
Settlement exception rate and p95 latency trendsThe upper panel shows exceptions per ten thousand settlements. The lower panel shows p95 settlement latency in seconds. Both rise during a provider delay at 16:00 UTC and recover by 20:00.Exceptions · Per 10K settlements0102030Review · 15 / 10KProvider delay16:00 UTC · 18 minSettlement latency · P95 seconds0s20s40s60sSLA · 20s08:0010:0012:0014:0016:0018:0020:0022:00
Market / dataset
OPS-SETTLE-0902 · All products
Metric
Exception rate · p95 settlement latency
Interval
2 hours
Time zone
UTC
Source
MERXI simulated settlement telemetry
Updated
02 Sep 2026 · 22:05
Data / feed / market
ObservedStatic exampleNot applicable
View exact example values
Exceptions and p95 latency exact example values
Time / itemValueContext
08:003 / 10K · 8sNormal
10:004 / 10K · 10sNormal
12:005 / 10K · 12sNormal
14:006 / 10K · 15sNormal
16:0023 / 10K · 57sProvider delay · 18 min
18:0011 / 10K · 32sRecovering
20:006 / 10K · 16sRecovered
22:004 / 10K · 11sNormal
Example dataNot live market information

03 · Marketing & social

Lead with one number. Preserve its evidence.

Public graphics may simplify interface chrome, never the provenance. Publish one time window, one unit, and a visible evidence line.

M01 · Campaign evidence

Hero number + evidence line

The current value earns prominence only when the supporting observations, period, source, and update time travel with it.

% · 7D · UTC
Campaign-ready evidence line supporting one probability numberA large 68.0 percent probability value is supported by seven daily observed data points rising from 47.2 percent.Current market-implied68.0%+20.8 pp · 7DYes contractDaily close · UTC0%25%50%75%100%27 Aug29 Aug31 Aug02 SepExample data · Not live
Market / dataset
PM-0902 · North London wins · 02 Sep 2026
Metric
Market-implied probability
Interval
1 day
Time zone
UTC
Source
MERXI simulated market close
Updated
02 Sep 2026 · 18:00
Data / feed / market
ObservedStatic exampleOpen
View exact example values
Hero number + evidence line exact example values
Time / itemValueContext
27 Aug47.2%Start
28 Aug49.4%Daily close
29 Aug51.1%Daily close
30 Aug56.0%Team news · 14:00 UTC
31 Aug61.6%Daily close
01 Sep65.1%Daily close
02 Sep68.0%Current · +20.8 pp
Example dataNot live market information

M02 · Market editorial

Top movers

Rank by percentage-point change, while showing both start and current probability. Never rank by visual line length alone.

pp · 24h · UTC
Top prediction-market movers ranked by percentage-point changeFour example markets compare their probability 24 hours ago with the current value. Arsenal win is the largest positive move at 13.8 percentage points.24-hour change · Percentage points40%50%60%70%ARS v MCI · Arsenal win54.268.0+13.8 ppFed Sep · Rate cut43.152.8+9.7 ppBTC > $80K · 30 Jun 2761.466.2+4.8 ppLAL v BOS · Lakers win59.655.1−4.5 pp24H AGOCURRENT02 Sep · 18:00 UTC
Market / dataset
PM-MOVERS-0902 · Eligible liquid markets
Metric
24-hour probability change
Interval
24 hours
Time zone
UTC
Source
MERXI simulated market closes
Updated
02 Sep 2026 · 18:00
Data / feed / market
ObservedStatic exampleOpen
View exact example values
Top movers exact example values
Time / itemValueContext
ARS v MCI · Arsenal win54.2% → 68.0%+13.8 pp
Fed Sep · Rate cut43.1% → 52.8%+9.7 pp
BTC > $80K · 30 Jun 2761.4% → 66.2%+4.8 pp
LAL v BOS · Lakers win59.6% → 55.1%−4.5 pp
Example dataNot live market information

04 · Data contract

A chart is complete when its evidence is complete.

These fields are required in product, Admin exports, and external marketing communication.
01

Axis

Show baseline, tick values, unit, and measurement domain. Never crop a curve into a false move.

02

Time

Use 24-hour time plus IANA zone or UTC. Relative labels such as “now” are secondary.

03

Precision

Probability 0.1%; decimal odds 2 dp; currency compacted only after the exact value is available.

04

Events

Label the event and timestamp. Keep the evidence line visible across the annotation.

05

Status

Separate observed, estimated, delayed, and suspended data with text—not color alone. Reserve Aqua for verified live or realtime state.

06

Source

Name the market, provider or internal dataset, sampling interval, and last update.

Required production captionMarket · metric · unit · interval · time zone · source · updated timestamp · data kind · feed freshness · market state